Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – February 20, 2018

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The dollar index is on the rise for the third consecutive day after last week’s precipitous & counterintuitive drop following stronger than anticipated U.S. inflation data.  It appears markets are slowly normalizing with equities lower and the dollar higher as participants reprice the likelihood of FOMC rate hikes for 2018.  Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting Minutes will be parsed for clues surrounding future rate moves in the U.S. while Tuesday has the RBA’s policy minutes due out, and Thursday sees the ECB’s most recent minutes also being released.  UK GDP and Kiwi retail sales are the only other data out this week worthy of note.

USD/CAD is higher from Friday’s close as we follow general market themes in early North American trading.  Look for this guidance to continue to influence the direction of the Canadian dollar until Thursday’s retail sales prints will come out and then Friday’s we have inflation data being released.  Friday’s number will carry more weight for markets given the current view the BoC is on hold until further notice where rates are concerned.

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