Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – October 17, 2018

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It was a mixed session in risk assets overnight with the gains in North America yesterday spilling over to Asia, but European stock futures are pulling back with NA indices pointing to a weaker open. USD is retracing recent losses with the aid of weaker UK CPI and EU’S Barnier suggesting the Brexit deadline/transition could be extended.

USD/CAD was sold for 2 days and we have since seen a bounce mostly related to overall USD sentiment rather than fundamentals. Friday’s Canadian CPI numbers should cause the next decent sized move for the CAD and I believe the CAD will weaken on disappointing data. Monday’s BOC business survey, while encouraging, highlighted CPI as soft. The overall medium term range for USD/CAD looks like 1.2850/1.3200.

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