Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – November 22, 2018

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Flows should remain light through US Thanksgiving with the trade weighted dollar marginally weaker this morning on positive Brexit news. Yesterday the FED’s Kaplan reiterated what Powell and Clarida have said – that we are approaching the neutral rate while global growth is slowing.  Next week will be a key FED week: Clarida on Nov 27, Powell on Nov 28, minutes on Nov 29, and Williams on Nov 30.

USD/CAD has drifted lower since the top seen on panicked buying up to 1.3318 in the wake of the equity & oil sell-off.  We are just above 1.3200 to open the day with little expected to happen until tomorrow morning’s key Canadian data releases of retail sales & CPI at 8:30 AM EST.  With the US basically on a 2 day vacation any surprises with these numbers could produce good moves as liquidity will be an issue. The BOC needs some backing from the data but whisper on the street is the retail number could prove to be a major disappointment.

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