Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – May 4, 2018

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Rounding out what was a busy week on the calendar is US Non-Farm Payrolls and US Unemployment Rate. Expectations have Non-Farms rebounding after last month’s weak 103k release. If we see another month of lower than expected jobs numbers then dollar bears could come out as the Fed is looking for key economic data to justify two or three more hikes throughout the year. The Dollar index is holding steady, down slightly from the 4-month highs we saw on Wednesday. Mnuchin met with Chinese officials this week and both parties have agreed to continue talks however no agreement has been met to curb trade tensions. The Trump administration has asked China to decrease its trade surplus with the US by at least $200B by the end of 2020. The Chinese have warned the US about such demands and have stated that they would not be bullied into a deal. Trump seems to also be set to walk away form the Iranian nuclear deal next week, which could have an effect on oil prices moving forward. Euro is trading within range despite showing a surprise decrease in euro zone inflation. Sterling continues to battle with itself as weak economic data, BoE concerns and political stalemates surrounding ongoing Brexit negotiations are continuing to weigh heavy on the Pound.

Non-Farm Payrolls (193k vs 103k) and Unemployment Rate (4.0% vs 4.1%) are due out this morning. Short term support and resistance continues to live at 1.2750 and 1.2900 respectively, with RSI inching up slightly to a neutral 54 and the 200-day moving average resides at 1.2675.

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