Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – May 30, 2018

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The Dollar Index is down 0.55% to 94.30, moving away from the seven month highs we saw on Tuesday. Trade concerns have resurfaced with China as Trump made an unexpected comment yesterday indicating that the US still held the threat of imposing tariffs on $50 billion worth of imports from China, attempting to leverage this unless Beijing addressed the apparent theft of America IP. China appears to be set to react accordingly. In other trade talks, Canadian PM Trudeau stated that he feels a win-win deal can still be reached but he would rather see the trade deal die than accept certain hardline demands from Washington. Oil is now trading sideways recovering from the lows earlier in the week, currently trading at $67.09/barrel. EUR is up against the Dollar as it recovers from multi-month lows fueled by political uncertainty in Italy and Spain. EUR has fallen 4.1% against USD this month. GBP is up slightly as it also recovers from multi-month lows seen earlier this week. Gains are still muted on Brexit concerns.

Today is a busy day on the calendar with German Unemployment and CPI beating expectations this morning, US GDP missing by 0.1% and US Advanced Goods Trade Balance narrowing. The BoC Rate Decision is later this morning where expectations are the they’ll hold at 1.25%. Short term support and resistance is at 1.2960 and 1.3050 respectively, with RSI at 57 and the 200-day moving average residing at 1.2656.

UPDATE:

BANK OF CANADA MAINTAINS OVERNIGHT INTEREST RATE AT 1.25%

*BOC: HIGHER RATES WILL BE NEEDED TO KEEP INFLATION NEAR TARGET

*BOC REMOVES LANGUAGE ON NEED FOR `MONETARY POLICY ACCOMODATION’

*BOC’S GRADUAL APPROACH WILL BE GUIDED BY INCOMING DATA

*BOC WILL LOOK THROUGH TRANSITORY IMPACT OF GAS PRICE CHANGES

*HOUSING MARKET CONTINUES TO ADJUST, RESALES SOFT INTO 2Q: BOC

*CORE INFLATION NEAR 2% IN LINE WITH ECONOMY NEAR POTENTIAL: BOC

*INFLATION LIKELY TO BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE NEAR TERM: BOC

*BOC `WILL TAKE A GRADUAL APPROACH TO POLICY ADJUSTMENTS’

 

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