Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – May 28, 2018

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With Memorial Day weekend upon us, the US will observe a bank holiday today. Despite the long weekend, Trump was still in action stating that a US team had entered North Korea to reengage in talks surrounding the proposed Summit with Kim Jong Un. With nothing on the calendar for the US today, things will pick up quickly with a number of US releases this week including Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. The BoC has a rate decision on Wednesday, which will be the highlight of the week for Canadian forecasts. EUR is mixed on renewed concerns over political uncertainty in Italy. Both populist parties, Five Star Movement and the League have abandoned their coalition efforts after President Mattarella vetoed the nomination of a finance minister that was a strong sceptic of Italy’s inclusion in the eurozone. The single currency saw gains following the collapse of coalition efforts, but ongoing political uncertainty is preventing further movement. The country is now expected to have an election later this year as the President’s move could have constitutional implications. Like the US, Britain is also observing a bank holiday today.

Excluding today, we have a busy week for economic releases. Tuesday shows US Consumer Confidence ( 128.0 vs 128.7), with Wednesday showing German Unemployment Change (-10k vs -7k)/Unemployment Claims Rate (5.3% vs 5.3%), OECD Eur economic forecasts, German CPI (1.9% vs 1.6%), US GDP (2.3% vs 2.3%), US Advanced Goods Trade Balance and the BoC Rate Decision. Thursday has EUR CPI (1.0% vs 0.7%), CAN GDP (3.0% vs 3.0%) and US PCE Core (1.8% vs 1.9%), while Friday has US Non-Farm Payrolls (190k vs 164k), CAN RBC Manufacturing PMI and US ISM Manufacturing (58.1 vs 57.3). Short term support and resistance are 1.2925 and 1.3000 respectively, with RSI up to 57 and the 200-day moving average residing at 1.2655.

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