Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – May 25, 2018

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The Dollar is flat as investors are still digesting the Fed minutes from Wednesday. The dovish tone caught some people by surprise and has been limiting Dollar gains since. The Fed indicated that they are comfortable with another hike, but they are willing to allow inflation to carry above the 2% target for a while. The next Fed Rate Decision is June 13th and there is currently a 95% chance of a hike. Trump called off the Korean Summit yesterday, penning a letter to North Korean leaders saying that he is still open to meet. North Korean officials released a statement claiming to be surprised by the cancellation and are still ready and willing to meet with the US to discuss peace talks. OPEC is discussing easing output curbs with Russia. OPEC has fulfilled its original goal of reducing the global crude surplus. EUR inched higher, however was limited by political concerns in both Italy and now Spain. Spanish PM Rajoy is now facing a motion of no-confidence after former aids were convicted  in a multi-million euro corruption case. Sterling was slightly lower on unchanged UK GDP and of course ongoing Brexit concerns.

US Durable Goods Orders (-1.3% vs 2.6%) highlights the North American calendar, with Powell speaking later in the day on Financial Stability and Transparency. Short term support and resistance is 1.2875 and 1.2975 respectively, while RSI is up to 57 and the 200-day moving average residing at 1.2653.

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