Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – May 22, 2018

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The Dollar Index has fallen 0.19% since seeing five month highs late last week. Investors looked to take profit on the dollar following an impressive rally over the course of the last week and a half. Over the weekend the US and China furthered trade talks as China announced that they would reduce their import duties on passenger cars as of July 1. As trade talks continue to develop, Trump et al will turn to NAFTA negotiations and the North Korean summit. Canada and Mexico are indicating that a deal can be made prior to the deadline in a couple weeks. If a deal is not reached, then talks will have to continue following the US midterm elections. South Korean President Moon Jae-in is slated to meet Trump in Washington to assist with getting the US-North Korean Summit back on track following Kim Jong Un’s latest threats to walk away after declaring that the US was making one-sided demands. EUR is showing signs of recovery, up almost a cent after yesterday’s lows. Political concerns are easing in Italy as a PM nominee has been selected by the populists party. Sterling is mixed with ongoing Brexit concerns and economic outlooks from the BoE and Monetary Policy Committee. A member of the MPC said that he could see as many as six rate hikes over the next three years from the BoE, which is much more hawkish than prior sentiment from Carney would indicate. Carney reiterated that the BoE expects interest rates to rise at a limited and gradual rate, giving no indication as to when a hike would be expected.

A very quiet day on the calendar has only a BoE speech that occurred earlier this morning in London. Wednesday picks up with UK CPI (2.5% vs 2.5%) and US FOMC Minutes, with more BoE speeches on Thursday and Friday showing UK GDP (1.2% vs 1.2%), US Durable Goods Orders (-1.4% vs 2.6%) and a speech from Jerome Powell. Short term support and resistance is 1.2750 and 1.2900 respectively with S2 1.2730 and R2 1.2925 following. RSI is at a neutral 50 and the 200-day moving average resides at 1.2649.

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