Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – May 2, 2018

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The dollar is down slightly from yesterday’s highs as we look towards the Fed Rate Decision later this afternoon. Dollar index was down 0.1% as of this morning, still within striking distance of the four month highs we saw yesterday on the index. It is expected that the Fed will be holding rates but will be releasing a statement where investors are looking for hints of possibly two or three hikes later in 2018. US data yesterday showed factory activity slowed slightly in April, but inflation is gaining momentum. Wages also grew this week in the US at the fastest quarterly stride in 11 years. Euro is mixed after production for Eurozone manufacturers slowed slightly in April but are still producing admirably, and GDP came in as expected at 2.5%, down from 2.7% last month. Sterling took a small victory after UK construction rose the most in 5 months, albeit not enough to remove the ongoing doubts that the BoE has regarding this summer’s rate hike.

The rest of the week is highlighted by US Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate on Friday, with Eurozone CPI (0.9% vs 1.0%) and US ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite (58.0 vs 58.8) tomorrow. As we continue to trade within range, short term support and remains at 1.2750 and 1.2900 respectively, while RSI sits neutral at 53 and the 200-day moving average resides at 1.2673.

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