Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – March 1, 2018

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The dollar index has continued to rise albeit marginally as we await further testimony from FED Chair Powell beginning at 10 AM EST.  If Powell beats the drum signaling continued growth in the U.S. economy with steady hikes the market will take that to mean 3 more moves in 2018 and the dollar will rise.

USD/CAD was quiet overnight but will be higher if the above scenario pans out.  The 1.2910 area will attract USD sellers and then we will wait for Canadian GDP to be released on Friday.  Buying dollars at these levels is tenuous as a neutral comment on the economy from Powell and/or a strong Canadian GDP print will quickly reverse dollar gains.  A move above 1.2910 targets the 1.3000-1.3050 area which would attract USD sellers again.  Technical indicators are at or nearing overbought levels and support now comes in at 1.2780 followed by 1.2685 (see chart).

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