Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – June 8, 2018

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The G7 Summit begins today in Quebec, and focus is now on the early departure of Trump as he heads to Singapore ahead of the Summit with North Korea. France and Germany warned the US that they would not sign a joint statement without concessions on trade, the Iranian nuclear deal and the Paris climate accord. Given that tensions that are building and Trump’s early exit from the Summit, expectations of a breakthrough are quite low. Investors are looking towards the FOMC Rate Decision, where expectations are that they will hike 25pts – Fed Funds Futures are currently pricing a 91.3% chance for a hike. Canada will show employment numbers this morning, with expectations that there will be some recovery after last month’s miss. EUR is down this morning mostly on USD strength ahead of the G7. Investors will be focused on the ECB’s decision on a possible end date for their QE program next week. Sterling is lower this morning on Brexit policy concerns.

CAN employment numbers highlight the calendar today, with Net Change in Employment (22.0k vs -1.1k) and Unemployment Rate (5.8% vs 5.8%). Short term support and resistance is 1.2960 and 1.3030 respectively, with RSI at 57 and the 200-day moving average residing at 1.2674.

 

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