Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – June 7, 2018

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With the G7 summit slated to start this week in Quebec, some tension is building surrounding the US. French President Macron has sided with Germany in warning the US that he will not sign a joint statement unless the US makes strides on trade, the Iran nuclear deal and the Paris climate accord. Larry Kudlow spoke yesterday and described the tension as a family quarrel. In other trade talks, China has stated that it is willing to boost imports if the US is able to meet them half way on trade. Both parties have indicated that they don’t want to escalate trade tensions any further. EUR is up hitting three week highs as investors are leaning towards the ECB signaling that they will ease their bond-buying program next week. The ECB is scheduled to debate the program next week. GBP is mixed as we have seen data out of the UK that indicates a reversal of the recent economic downturn, however gains are muted by ongoing Brexit policy concerns. Poloz will be speaking at 11:15 this morning regarding the financial system reviews.

Today is quiet on the calendar with no primary economic releases. Tomorrow we’ll see CAN Net Change in Employment (22.0k vs -1.1k) and CAN Unemployment Rate (5.8% vs 5.8%). Tomorrow the market shows an option expiry for $1.4B @ 1.2850. When options of this size come to expire, the market tends to gravitate towards the strike rate. Short term support and resistance 1.2860 and 1.2980 respectively, with RSI at 54 and the 200-day moving average residing at 1.2672.

 

 

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