Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – July 30, 2018

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This week we have a number of central banks delivering their respective interest rate decisions, while today is relatively quiet as we warm up for the parade of releases to come. With Bank of Japan on Tuesday, Fed on Wednesday and BoE on Thursday, the only expected hike is from Carney at the Bank of England despite Brexit woes. The Dollar is widely unchanged from the end of last week as investors wait for the Fed in hopes on determining near-term direction for the Dollar. USD fell on Friday after GDP missed (4.1% vs 4.2%), with concerns that trade tensions could negatively effect growth throughout the remainder of the year. Trump made news over the weekend by stating that he would be willing to shut down the government if Democrats were unwilling to support funding plans to build the border wall with Mexico, citing an October 1st deadline. Canada will make an appearance on the Calendar this week with GDP (2.3% vs 2.5%) on Tuesday and RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI on Wednesday.

EUR is mixed as German CPI (2.0% vs 2.1%) just missed this morning and a generally softer USD helped mitigate further losses. Last week’s ECB Rate Decision reaffirmed that interest rates would be held until mid-2019, keeping EUR trading within recent ranges. GBP is quiet as it looks forward to the BoE rate decision on Thursday, where a 90.8% chance of a hike is currently priced into the market.

A busy week ahead is highlighted by Eurozone CPI and GDP, Canadian GDP, FOMC Rate Decision, BoE and US Non-Farm Payrolls. Short term support and resistance is 1.2950 and 1.3170 respectively, with RSI at 55 and the 200-day moving average residing at 1.2815.

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