Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – July 20, 2018

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The Dollar Index fell this morning as Trump took aim at the Fed and its approach to monetary policy. Trump said in an interview yesterday that he does not approve of the aggressive rate hikes coming from the Fed, referencing the work that he’s put into the economy only to see interest rates continue to climb. The Fed could respond with interest rate hikes to spotlight their independence from the White House. Despite the drop this morning, the Dollar Index is still seeing its second straight week of gains.

EUR is up this morning on USD weakness. EU-US trade tensions are continuing to escalate as the EU is expected to issue more tariffs on the US, with about $3.8B in tariffs already applied in response to the aluminum and steel tariffs from last month. GBP is also up slightly on the Dollar, but with continued Brexit disharmony in parliament we are simply waiting for progress reports – or lack thereof.

The sole primary release this morning is Canadian CPI (2.3% vs 2.2%), with US Rig Counts following later in the day. Short term support and resistance is 1.3175 and 1.3330 respectively, with RSI at 61 and the 200-day moving average at 1.2804.

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