Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – July 13, 2018

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The Dollar Index saw gains during the overnight session on the back of on target CPI data yesterday as well as trade tensions, which have investors seeking the safety of the Dollar to close out the week. Trump met with British PM Theresa May yesterday and sparked a bit of controversy when he spoke with reporters after saying that a soft Brexit would likely end the possibility of a trade deal with the US. Trump also reportedly praised Boris Johnson, who resigned earlier this week, and said that he would make a great leader for Britain. Trump is slated to wrap up his European tour on Monday in Finland to meet with Putin.  Jerome Powell provided an encouraging assessment of the US economy yesterday noting low unemployment and inflation hovering near the Fed’s 2% target. He did warn that a sustained period of high tariffs could be harmful for the growth of the US economy.

EUR fell to a multi-day low today after data showed Chinese trade surplus was at a record high, furthering concerns of the US-China trade war. Sterling also fell after a white paper was released yesterday highlighting the proposed trade agreements with the EU when Britain leaves, and it was not well received.

On a relatively quiet Friday, the only primary releases are US U. of Michigan Sentiment report (98.0 vs 98.2) which is scheduled to be released this morning at 10:00am and the Fed will release the Monetary Policy Report to Congress at 11:00am. Short term support and resistance is 1.3060 and 1.3255 respectively, with RSI at 60 and the 200-day moving average residing at 1.2782.

 

 

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