Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – December 19, 2018

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FED expected to hike today with most updated analyst consensus higher going into the meeting at a 78.4% chance that Chairman Powell will announce a further .25% increase to the overnight lending rate to 2.5%. USDCAD simmering down from yesterday’s peak at 1.3496 last recorded June 12 2017. The FED is expected to accompany the decision with some dovish comments, lowering dot plot expectations for further 2019 rate hikes and possibly lowering growth forecasts. Canadian CPI reported a tick lower at 1.7% year over year from expected 1.8% and previous November reading of 2.4%. Yesterday saw one month WTI Oil futures dip to their lowest levels since April 2016 weakening the loonie by over a cent and a quarter and blowing past the 1.3442 resistance level. Crude inventories reported a draw of -.497M barrels from expected -2.437M barrels. Key resistance now standing at 1.3537 and support holding at 1.3320.

All ears on FED comments post 2PM with the presser at 2:30PM.

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