Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – August 30, 2018

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The Dollar Index is down this morning for the fifth consecutive day, as global trade tensions appear to ease and investors are more willing to take risks on currencies outside of the safe-haven status. With some investors betting on deal being reached to replace NAFTA, CAD and MXN have seen gains over the past week against the Dollar. With tomorrow serving as the deadline imposed by the US, a new trade agreement could result in further gains for the Peso and Loonie as traders will be even more comfortable wading outside of USD. Conversely, if a deal in principle is not reached then the markets could read it as escalating trade tensions and revert back to safe-haven currencies. This morning saw Canadian Annualized GDP miss expectations, resulting in a slight US Dollar rally.

EUR was stronger against the Dollar as investors are citing a rise in risk appetite. The Pound was a strong performer this morning, as hopes of a Brexit deal reemerged with the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator stating that the EU was willing to offer an unprecedentedly close relationship to Britain post-exit.

We’ll wrap up the week with Eurozone CPI tomorrow morning as we head into the long weekend. Short term support and resistance is 1.2865 and 1.3130 respectively, with RSI at 50 and the 200-day moving average residing at 1.2844.

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