Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – April 26, 2018

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An early start to the calendar today with the ECB maintaining rates of 0% as expected. Draghi will be addressing the media later this morning, which the markets will look to for answers on outlook for the eurozone. Following French President Marcon’s trip to the White House, whispers of Trump pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal have begun to surface, leading to the Iranian Foreign Minister to indicate that Iran would reciprocate and walk away from the table if the US leads the way. This news helped support oil above the $68/barrel following soft US oil inventories numbers yesterday. Following Draghi’s address later this morning, US Advanced Goods Trade Balance ( -$75.0b vs -$75.9b) and US Durable Goods Orders (1.6% vs 3.0%) round out the day. Friday will be a busy day with the BOJ Rate Decision, German Unemployment Change (-15k vs -19k), German Unemployment Claims (5.3% vs 5.3%), British GDP (1.4% vs 1.4%), US GDP (2.0% vs 2.9%) and finally Carney speech in London.

USDCAD has consolidated after testing highs earlier in the week following US 10 year yields reaching multi year highs. CAD remains in a vulnerable position with uncertain NAFTA talks, a cautious tone from the BoC and widening yields. Short term support and resistance are at 1.2820 and 1.2900 respectively with RSI still neutral at 53.

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