Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – April 17, 2018

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A quiet night for US markets USDCAD trading within a 30 point range during the overnight session. The Dollar moved lower as the appetite for risk improved as geopolitical tensions eased following the missile strikes in Syria over the weekend & the coalition attacks did not escalate to wide range conflict. Trump’s Tweet from yesterday directly mentioned FX as he accused Russia and China of devaluing their respective currencies. China’s foreign ministry refuted the claims stating that the information coming out of the Trump administration was a bit chaotic, as there is no factual basis to Trump’s Tweet. China trade concerns have also reentered the conversation, as China announced a temporary anti-dumping tariff on US sorghum, effectively increasing concerns of other staples being targeted following the US actions of banning Chinese phone makers from purchasing American tech. EUR fell this morning as German consumer sentiment showed weaker than expected numbers which is compounding perceived international trade tensions.

Wednesday is the BoC Rate Decision, where expectations are for Poloz and co. to hold rates, possibly eyeing a rate hike for mid summer. The only other North American primary economic release for the week is Canadian CPI on Friday. USDCAD is still rangebound, struggling to break out of the mid 1.25’s and the 200-day moving average at 1.2623. The near term support levels are at 1.2450 with resistance at 1.2680. RSI is neutral sitting at 45.

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