Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – April 16, 2018

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Markets breathed a collective sigh of relief after the coalition attack against Syria was said to be a “one & done” strike garnering muted reactions across most asset classes as we start the week.  Caution is still the word of the day as any escalation of a military response from Syria & its backers, Russia and Iran, would see a rush to safe haven assets such as gold, U.S Treasuries & Yen.  Attention now turns to U.S. retail sales due out at 8:30 AM EST where a strong print of +0.4% is expected which should see a rise in the U.S. dollar.

USD/CAD has traded in a sideways fashion after hitting lows near 1.2550 twice last week.  The 200 day moving average currently resides at 1.2625 and provides a short term pivot point  with 1.2450 support and 1.2680 being surrounding support & resistance.  With momentum indicators looking to turn higher USD strength could return in the next week or so.  The Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report and Rate Statement on Wednesday is expected to pass with no rate movement and now new sentiments expressed regarding the outlook for our economy.  More focus will be placed on Friday’s core inflation numbers & retail sales print which should provide the market with a better idea of future BoC moves.

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