Market Update August 15

Tuesday kicked off with the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting its cash rate to 3.60% from 3.85%, as expected, marking a 25-basis-point reduction. In the U.S., Core CPI rose 0.3% in July, matching forecasts but edging up from 0.2% in June, while headline CPI increased 0.2% month-over-month, slightly cooler than the prior 0.3%.

Wednesday brought strong labor data out of Australia, with employment rising by 24.5K, a sharp rebound from June’s modest 1K gain. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.2% from 4.3%, reinforcing a picture of resilience in the Australian job market.

Thursday delivered the week’s biggest surprise. U.S. Producer Price Index jumped 0.9% in July, the largest monthly gain in three years, well above the 0.2% forecast. Annual wholesale inflation accelerated to 3.3% from 2.3%, while Core PPI climbed 0.6%, pushing its yearly rate to 2.8%. The market noted the surge is partly tied to higher U.S. tariffs and may prove temporary, though it could feed through to broader inflation in the months ahead. Weekly jobless claims printed in line with expectations at 224K.

Friday wrapped up with mixed consumer data. U.S. Core Retail Sales grew 0.3% (down from 0.8% prior), while headline Retail Sales rose 0.5%, slightly under the 0.6% consensus and well below June’s 0.9%. Consumer sentiment softened, with the University of Michigan’s preliminary index falling to 58.6 (vs. 61.9 expected). Inflation expectations climbed to 4.9% from 4.5%, suggesting households are feeling the pinch from higher prices.

Current Market Conditions:

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