- November 21, 2025
- Posted by: Robert Marshall
- Category: Market News
FX Weekly Market Update: Week Ending November 21, 2025
Volatility reigned supreme in foreign exchange markets this week as central banks sent conflicting signals, technical breakdowns accelerated, and risk-off sentiment reminded traders that nothing moves in one direction forever.
Canadian Dollar: Breaking Through Key Levels
The Canadian dollar weakened substantially as USD/CAD surged above prior technical thresholds and reached multi-month highs, with Loonie weakness coinciding with a deteriorating risk environment and trade concerns. October retail sales declined after a robust prior month, and Q3 GDP scheduled for late next week is expected to show modest growth.
US Dollar: Consolidation Above Technical Resistance
The US Dollar Index climbed to a one-month high, settling above the 200-day moving average for the first time since early March on robust jobs data and shifting Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations. Strong technical momentum pushed indicators higher for the fourth advance in five sessions, with the next critical target representing the 38.2% retracement of 2025’s decline.
Euro: Testing Critical Support Levels
The euro slid to nine-session lows before stabilizing by Friday, breaking through the 61.8% retracement and significantly weakening its technical picture. The eurozone’s preliminary November composite PMI declined, marking the first monthly drop since May, while negotiated wages rose modestly in Q3, the smallest increase since Q3 2021, suggesting diminishing inflation pressures.
British Pound: Pressure from Rate Cut Expectations
Sterling slid to two-week lows by Friday with recovery attempts rejected by sellers, recording lower highs since last Thursday’s peak. Swaps markets priced a high probability of a Bank of England rate cut in December, with UK retail sales declining and preliminary November PMI showing services weakening significantly.
Japanese Yen: Verbal Intervention Warnings Intensify
The yen extended its decline throughout most of the week before staging a Friday recovery as risk appetite deteriorated, with Tokyo’s Ministry of Finance ratcheting up explicit threats of “material intervention” after the currency fell on a weekly basis in 10 of the past 13 weeks. On Friday’s risk-off environment, the yen rebounded as the strongest G10 currency as traditional safe-haven demand reasserted itself.
Australian Dollar: Breaking Below Technical Support
The Australian dollar settled below the 200-day moving average for the first time since May, reaching lows in critical support zones as options expiring during the week added pressure. Momentum indicators turned lower with technical moving averages cross-positioned in bearish fashion, signaling deteriorating conditions.
Chinese Yuan: PBOC Tolerates Gradual Depreciation
The offshore yuan remained relatively stable near mid-range levels, while the People’s Bank of China raised the dollar’s reference rate for the third consecutive session—the longest streak since April—indicating tolerance for gradual depreciation.
Mexican Peso and New Zealand Dollar
The Mexican peso succumbed to risk-off sentiment after USD/MXN surged above prior technical levels, while the New Zealand dollar gained on expectations for a Reserve Bank rate cut next week.
If you’re managing currency exposures or exploring FX opportunities, now is the time to talk strategy, our team at BendixFX is here to help you capitalize on this week’s shifts and prepare for what’s ahead. Reach out to discuss your specific needs.
Current market conditions as of 7:51 AM EST:
