- February 21, 2025
- Posted by: Melanie Scott
- Category: Market News
Canada: Retail sales surged 2.5% in December, beating the expected 1.5%. Growth was driven by food & beverage retailers and motor vehicle & parts dealers, though all nine sectors saw gains. Core retail sales rose 2.7% (forecasted 1.7%), giving CAD a boost against major counterparts. However, the key event of the day is BoC Governor Macklem’s 12:30 ET speech on “Trade Friction, Structural Change, and Monetary Policy,” which may offer further insights into the BoC’s policy outlook amid trade tensions.
U.S.: Business activity growth nearly stalled in February as services output hit a 25-month low, offsetting stronger manufacturing performance. Flash manufacturing PMI rose to 51.6 (previous: 51.2), an eight-month high, while flash services PMI fell sharply to 49.7 (expected: 53.0). Business confidence weakened due to uncertainty around federal policies. The manufacturing uptick was partly attributed to tariff front-running, suggesting a temporary boost.
UK: Retail sales surprised to the upside, growing 1.7% (expected: 0.4%). Flash manufacturing PMI disappointed at 46.4 (forecasted: 48.5), while services PMI was slightly better at 51.1 (expected: 50.8). Employers are cutting staff at an accelerating pace, potentially due to upcoming increases in social security contributions and a nearly 7% minimum wage hike in April. Sterling initially held a two-month high against USD but has since pared some gains.
Eurozone: French and German flash manufacturing PMIs slightly exceeded expectations at 45.5 (forecasted: 45.3) and 46.1 (forecasted: 45.4), respectively. However, services PMI missed in France (44.5 vs. expected 48.8) and Germany (52.2 vs. expected 52.4). The mixed data softened EUR sentiment ahead of Sunday’s German election. Sluggish growth momentum reinforces expectations of further ECB easing.
Current Market Conditions:
| USDCAD | +0.06% |
| EURUSD | -0.25% |
| AUDUSD | -0.28% |
| GBPUSD | -0.14% |
| EURCAD | -0.19% |
| AUDCAD | -0.22% |
| GBPCAD | -0.08% |
| DXY | +0.24% |
| USOIL | -1.54% |
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