Daily commentary & market insights, April 10, 2025

U.S. inflation cooled in March, signaling a potential easing of price pressures despite ongoing trade policy volatility. Consumer prices rose 2.4% year-over-year, down from 2.8% in February—the slowest pace since September—driven by declines in gasoline, airfare, and hotel costs. Softer inflation data may give the Federal Reserve room to cut interest rates, which could allow President Trump to refinance trillions in government debt at more favorable terms. Weekly jobless claims came in at 223,000, in line with expectations and slightly higher than the previous week’s 219,000.

In a surprise move yesterday, President Trump announced a 90-day suspension of tariffs on dozens of countries, effective immediately. Simultaneously, he raised duties on Chinese imports to 125%, which today were revised to 145%. Under the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), compliant goods continue to be traded tariff-free, while non-compliant goods face a 25% tariff—except for energy and potash, which are taxed at 10%.

The market reacted sharply, with the U.S. dollar falling 1.78% against the Canadian dollar between yesterday and this morning, reflecting heightened investor uncertainty.

Oil prices extended their volatility, plunging below $60 per barrel this morning—hovering near a four-year low. The decline reflects investor anxiety over abrupt U.S. trade policy shifts, which have sparked fears of a global recession that could sharply reduce energy demand.

Current market conditions:

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