Market News

U.S. jobless claims came in at 217,000, better than the 227,000 forecast yesterday. However, manufacturing PMI disappointed at 49.5 (vs 52.7 expected), while services surged to 55.2, beating the 53.0 estimate. The U.S. dollar strengthened off the back of this data and this morning continued its gains as President Trump commented on his visit to

Canadian inflation data released today showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 1.9% year-over-year in June, up from 1.7% in May. The acceleration in price growth has significantly reduced the likelihood of a July rate cut from the Bank of Canada, with markets now widely expecting policymakers to hold rates steady as they monitor inflationary

U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to slap a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, marking his most extreme use of trade policy yet to pressure a foreign government over unrelated domestic affairs. In a letter to Brazil yesterday, Trump condemned the prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro, a right-wing populist accused of plotting a coup. Brazil’s

It’s been a relatively subdued week in the markets, with Canada observing a holiday on Tuesday and our neighbours to the south celebrating Independence Day today. In Europe, Monday’s inflation data out of Germany confirmed that the disinflationary process is continuing in small, cautious steps. Headline inflation came in at 2.0% year-over-year in June, down

The USD took a 0.71% tumble against the CAD today, driven by rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and fresh political uncertainty. President Trump, speaking from the NATO summit in The Hague, reignited concerns over the Fed’s independence by hinting that he may appoint a replacement for Jerome Powell by autumn. The NATO summit

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady at 4.50%, where it has remained since December, as expected. The FOMC remains split over forecasting for the remainder of the year, with 8 policymakers expecting two cuts, 2 expecting one cut and 7 forecasting no rate cuts before the end of 2025. Policymakers weighed signs of

The U.S. dollar continued its slide today, hitting another multi-month low against the Canadian dollar, down 0.43% from yesterday’s close to levels not seen since early October 2024. A string of softer-than-expected U.S. economic data is driving renewed speculation that the Fed could cut rates as early as July. Yesterday’s core CPI surprised to the

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady at 2.75% for the second consecutive meeting, as it continues to monitor signs of economic weakness and the potential for government stimulus. Despite soft employment figures, a frozen housing market, and underlying signs of a slowing economy in Friday’s GDP release, the Bank is taking a

Global markets were rattled on Friday after President Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs on all European Union imports starting June 1, rekindling fears about the economic toll of aggressive U.S. trade policies. However, those fears eased on Sunday when Trump postponed the tariff threat to July 9, helping risk sentiment rebound. The euro climbed

This week’s U.S. data paints a picture of resilience in the face of uncertainty. Jobless claims dipped slightly to 227K, coming in just below expectations and continuing to show a solid labor market. Manufacturing and services activity both surprised to the upside. The flash PMIs for May jumped to 52.3 in both sectors (well above