Market Update Aug 7

The U.S. has officially implemented a sweeping set of tariffs, marking a historical shift in global trade policy. As of midnight last night, new “reciprocal” tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% now apply to imports from nearly 200 countries. Top trading partners, such as the European Union, Japan, and South Korea are facing a rate of 15%. Brazil is now subject to a 50% duty, while India faces 25%, a figure that is threatened to double due to its ongoing energy imports from Russia. Trump floated the possibility of a 100% tariff on all imported chips and semiconductors, with potential exemptions for companies that commit to domestic manufacturing. As we approach China’s August 12 deadline for tariff measures, a 90-day implementation delay seems to be likely.

With widespread concerns about rising consumer prices, supply chain disruptions, and escalating trade tension, Canada remains at the centre of the unfolding trade conflict. Beyond the earlier tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, copper, and automotive products, all Canadian goods not covered under CUSMA will now be charged 35%, up from last month’s 25%. Additionally, new 50% duties on semi-finished copper products have been introduced. Canadian export volumes are already under pressure and are projected to subtract considerably from GDP growth when Q2 figures are released later this month. Prime Minister Carney is expected to hold talks with President Trump in the coming days.

U.S. initial jobless claims came in slightly above expectations at 226K versus the forecasted 221K, though the miss was not considered particularly significant by market participants.

Across the Atlantic, the Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% in a surprisingly narrow 5–4 vote. The rate move provided a lift to the British pound, which rose 0.54% against both the USD and CAD. A pause is widely expected at the Bank’s September meeting.

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