Daily commentary & market insights, December 06, 2024

While Canadian employment change jumped up to 50.5k (significantly better than expected 24.7k), the unemployment rate also increased 6.8% in November (worse than expected 6.6% and previous 6.5%). This increase caused the market to boost its bet on a jumbo rate cut next Wednesday and the CAD slid to a near 4.5-year low against the greenback.

A similar trend in the US showed non-farm employment jumped to 227k (expected 218k and previous 36k). Unemployment increased 4.2% in November, also worse than the expected and previous 4.1%. USD was mixed after this data came out and it kept the FED on track to make another cut coming up on December 18th. CME FedWatch is currently estimating an 87% probability of the Fed’s rate dropping 25 points in December.

-Though the French market bounced back with a -7.7B trade balance, significantly improved from last month’s -8.4B, it didn’t help the EUR much as it slid 0.3% against USD. Its 0.6% gain on CAD is likely due to CAD’s weakness rather than any EUR strength.

-Oil is down 1.34% from yesterday’s close at the moment to 67.44/barrel

-BoE boosted its year ahead inflation expectations to 2.8% in November, up from October’s 2.5%. GBP holding relatively steady against USD compared to its 0.66% gain on CAD.

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