Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – February 20, 2019

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Positive sentiment yesterday surrounding a trade agreement and comments from the U.S. looking for a more stable Yuan pushed the dollar index lower with this move continuing in overseas markets.  The USD/CAD 1.3180 Jan 9 low is being sticky with 1.3152, the 200 day moving average, waiting below to support. Recent forays of a close below the 100 DMA has seen CAD impulsively move .6 % lower on average which would put us around 1.3150-60 in line with the 200 DMA. CAD has done well on the crosses and to see a move below the 200 DMA would require  an assault on the DXY and USD sentiment . Some market participants are expecting BoC Governor Poloz to be optimistic tomorrow in his Monetary Policy speech in Montreal which has CAD bulls reacting.  Also, a positive news story overnight that Alberta (the 3rd largest crude reserve holder in the world) has a profitable plan to rail the oil. Look for US to trade within a 1.3150-1.3215 range today. Long term trend line support is also seen at 1.3100.

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