Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – January 22, 2019

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Global equities are in the red as the recovery that began in 2019 is losing slowly steam. This by no means indicates the sell off seen at the end of 2018 will take grip once again but the market seems to be pausing to reassess after a tumultuous month or so of activity.  Oil is off its highs and the dollar index is drifting higher as participants keep a wary eye on Brexit, the U.S. Government shutdown and global trade tensions.  The BoJ & ECB have rate decisions over the next few days with no movement expected by either central bank.

USD/CAD has also slowly drifted higher and is beginning to unwind extreme oversold technical readings on a daily chart.  Friday’s headline CPI in Canada was an eye-opener but economists blamed a change in methodology around airline fares so the ground gained was given up quickly. This week we get some minor data which is forward looking (Wholesale Trades and Manufacturing Sales) and more importantly Retail Sales tomorrow at 8:30 AM EST.  Look for resistance above at 1.3365 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.3665-1.3180 move) and 1.3391.  Support is now seen at 1.3281 and 1.3233.

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