Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – October 29, 2018

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This week sees global stock indices continuing their recent volatile sessions with Shanghai dropping over 2% while European bourses have found positive territory so far on the day.  Monetary policy out of Japan out on Wednesday should hold no surprises while Thursday’s BoE meeting should also be uneventful as rates are expected to remain unchanged in the UK.

The Canadian dollar appears to have weathered the storm for now after topping out Friday at 1.3160 post decent U.S. GDP data was released.  Our wide range of 1.2880-1.3200 looks to be well defined & remains intact.  With the S&P over 8% lower on the month we expect some USD buying against CAD into month end as accounts are over hedged with lower asset levels.  Wednesday we get CAD GDP which should print around consensus but expect data to be heavily scrutinized post BoC and increased volatility around the December hike pricing.  Friday’s dual Canadian & U.S. employment data will round out releases for the week where +193K is consensus on the NFP while Canada is anticipated  to post a gain of 12.5K jobs last month.

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