Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – October 23, 2018

With no economic data of consequence on tap today we will likely be confined to a narrow trading range.  The BoC accompanying statement tomorrow will be upbeat, and any hawkishness will be to justify the hike more than signal future ones.  Going forward we are likely to see a data dependent Bank with one more hike in January. While the forward curve has several more hikes priced into it for 2019, gauging the validity of this view will be the next 2-3 percent move in US/CAD.  If CAD does rally a bit off the statement tomorrow, I would expect USD bids to appear in the 1.3065/75 area and again at 1.3025/35. Resistance remains near 1.3125-40.