Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – October 22, 2018

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Friday’s disappointing Canadian data sent the Canadian dollar lower to levels not seen in a over a month.  While a Bank of Canada rate hike of 0.25% is already baked into the market’s expectations on Wednesday, further monetary policy tightening is being pushed back with many giving pause to thoughts of another hike in 2018.  We have been following general USD moves, and with the dollar index remaining buoyant, a move above 96.20 in that index will put pressure on CAD and likely see a test towards 1.3200 in the current backdrop.  The only other economic event of note this week is a rate decision from the ECB on Thursday where no change is anticipated for the main refinancing rate.

Look for support in USD/CAD to come in at 1.3055-75 while resistance lies at 1.3140-50.

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