Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – October 15, 2018

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The Dollar Index slipped this morning after US retail sales data missed expectations and 10-year Treasury yields fell lower after hitting multi year highs last week. Retail Sales came in at 0.1%, missing expectations by 0.5%, while the 10-Year treasury Yield has fallen to 3.162 – down from the high of 3.250 last week. The Dollar appears to be hobbling along as poor CPI data last week has created a small trend of lower than expected data coming out of the US, despite expectations of a fourth rate hike from the Fed in December. The BoC Overall Business Outlook Survey came out this morning and hawkish tones dominated the sentiment, further confidence in a BoC Rate hike next week.

EUR is trading within range as the single currency rebounds from the selloff over the past two weeks on the back of Italian budget concerns violating the EU’s deficit regulations. Sterling is up this morning as crunch time for Theresa May is upon us. The British PM will meet with EU counterparts this Wednesday and an EU vote will follow at the end of the month, potentially determining the fate of the British Exit. While May has the support of the Irish, she is still battling from within the Parliament, as members of her Cabinet openly oppose her plans. There are also whispers of a vote of no confidence being suggested by Parliamentary members.

Short term support and resistance is 1.2885 and 1.3075 res[respectively, while RSI is sitting at 49 and the 200-day moving average resides at 1.2890.

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