Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – October 4, 2018

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The Dollar Index is down this morning, breaking a six day period of gains against a weighted basket of other major currencies. The Dollar slide was due to some positive moves from EUR, GBP and JPY. Despite the weaker index, Dollar sentiment was boosted yesterday after a Powell speech where he said that the economic outlook was remarkably positive. Additionally, the US 10-year yield is at a seven year high on positive data from the US service sector. CAD is still strong after a new trade agreement was reached earlier in the weak, however Fed confidence in the Dollar is erasing some gains from this week.

EUR saw some strength during the overnight as concerns of Italian budget issues eased. GBP also saw some gains on reports that Ireland has reportedly backed Theresa May’s plan for an all-UK customs union.

The calendar is quiet today, however tomorrow we’ll see the release of dual jobs numbers out of North America, with CAN Unemployment Rate (5.9% vs 6.0%), CAN Net Change in Employment (30.0k vs -51.6k), US Non-Farm Payrolls (185k vs 201k) and US Unemployment Rate (3.8% vs 3.9%). Short term support and resistance is 1.2780 and 1.2960 respectively, with RSI at 45 and the 200-day moving average residing at 1.2873.

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