Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – October 3, 2018

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The Dollar Index continues to gain, extending its current rally to six day. The gains have been driven by external factors (ie. Brexit, Italy, etc.) and not a shift in sentiment out of the Fed to include a even more hawkish tone. With a new North American Trade deal reached earlier in the week, investors have viewed this as one trade dispute off the board for the US. As far as USMCA goes, CAD was a clear winner against the Dollar with over a 200bps swing against USD from trade on Monday. The BoC will be making an interest rate decision later this month and with a new trade agreement with the US, Poloz have a relatively clear path for a hike – currently priced in at a 96.1% chance of a hike. Investors have their eyes on dual jobs numbers out of Canada and the US on Friday morning.

EUR snapped a five day slide against the Dollar this morning after it was announced that Italy plans to cut its budget after next year, which has eased concerns of a widening budget that shook markets last week. The Italian government will be incrementally lowering it’s budget from 2.4% in 2019, to 2.2% in 2020 and finally 2% in 2021, meeting guidelines set forth by the EU. Sterling is mixed as it tries to brush off nearly a one-month low against the Dollar yesterday. Ongoing Brexit concerns continue to limit any upside from this mornings positive PMI numbers out of the UK.

Short term support and resistance is 1.2725 and 1.2880 respectively, with RSI at 44 and the 200-day moving average residing at 1.2871.

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