Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – September 18, 2018

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The Dollar remains flat against its counterparts this morning, as news from the White House announced a 10% tax on over $200B in Chinese goods effective next week, with that number increasing to 25% by year’s end. Trump cited China’s retaliatory responses as the reason for imposing the further tariffs. China has taken a firm stance on not bending to the will of the US in these trade talks, despite the fact that the Chinese markets have taken a significant blow in recent months. Washington has offered to host Beijing at the end of the month for trade negotiations, but China is likely to cancel the trip. Oil has made headlines, as the Saudi Kingdom has said it is comfortable with oil rising above $80/barrel in the short term. Ongoing concerns for oil prices remain the sanctions on Iran – OPEC’s third biggest supplier, effecting overall supply.

EUR is flat against the Dollar as investors look to tomorrow where Draghi is set to speak in Berlin. EUR could see some support if Draghi is able to downplay trade tensions and confirms the QE program is in fact set to end in December. Sterling is down against the Dollar this morning on global trade concerns and investors focusing in on safe-haven currencies. Brexit concerns still the obvious issue with the Pound, with May’s own government allegedly set to vote against the PM on any deal she is able to reach with the EU.

The calendar is relatively quiet this week with a Draghi speech and GBP CPI on Wednesday and CAD CPI on Friday. Short term support and resistance is 1.2941 and 1.3175 respectively, with RSI at 50 and the 200-day moving average residing at 1.2863.

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