Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – July 6, 2018

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Trade tensions have now officially been escalated with the commencement of Trump’s $34B tariffs on Chinese imports. China will go tariff-for-tariff with the US as Trump looks for another $16B and has suggested that as much as $550B could eventually be targeted – a number that actually exceeds all imports from China to the US in 2017. In addition to the tariff race beginning today, investors will be watching for dual jobs numbers on both sides of the border this morning. US Non-Farm Payrolls (195k vs 223k), US Unemployment Rate (3.8% vs 3.8%), CAN Net Change in Employment (24.0k vs -7.5k) and CAN Unemployment Rate (5.8% vs 5.8%) are the highlights for today.

EUR saw gains this morning as German Industrial Production (3.1% vs 1.5%) was better than expected, adding to a string of better than expected secondary numbers this week out of the Eurozone. GBP is soft as Theresa May has not been able to win over her Cabinet yet with the group heading into a single-day summit on Brexit today.

Short term support and resistance is 1.3100 and 1.3220 respectively as we continue to trade sideways this week, while RSI is at 59 and the 200-day moving average residing at 1.2764.

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