Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – July 4, 2018

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Good morning and Happy Fourth!

With the American holiday upon us, markets are expected to be slow today as trading has thinned out since the close of yesterday’s session. The Dollar limped into the holiday due to ongoing trade tensions as the deadline for the US to impose tariffs on Chinese imports is this Friday. China has maintained its position and will match any tariff on US products. Upon returning to the office on Thursday, the Fed will release the minutes from last month’s rate decision meeting. Markets will be looking for confirmation from the last meeting that things are still on track and that the forecasted rate hikes are still on the table.

EUR is neutral today with no notable news coming out of the Eurozone. Sterling saw a slight gain as PMI numbers beat expectations, but the positive secondary data can only carry the pound so far.

As we wait for the calendar to pick up tomorrow, markets are expected to be rather calm today. Short term support and resistance is at 1.3100 and 1.3220. RSI remains at 59 and the 200-day moving average resides at 1.2757.

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