Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – June 28, 2018

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The Dollar Index is slightly down today after seeing gains across the board yesterday. Trade tensions eased as the Trump administration backed off from a total ban on Chinese investment in US companies. Uncertainty remains though as Larry Kudlow mentioned that Trump’s announcement did not specify a softened stance on China. A summit for Trump and Putin has been scheduled for July 16th in Finland. While expectations for a productive outcome are low, topics such as Russian meddling in US elections, Ukraine and Syria are likely to be on the agenda. Later this afternoon, the Fed will post results from the final leg of its 2018 stress test. EUR is soft as German CPI missed expectations this morning. Sterling is down again today after the BoE warned that household debt levels and ongoing Brexit concerns are weighing on the UK.

There is $1.2B in option expiries today at 1.3345. When options of this size are set to expire, the market tends to gravitate towards the strike price. German CPI (2.1% vs 2.2) and US GDP (2.0% vs 2.2%) both missed expectations this morning. Tomorrow is a busy day to round out the week with German Employment data, Eurozone CPI, CAD GDP and US PCE Core set for release. Short term support and resistance is 1.3260 and 1.3386 respectively, with RSI at 65 and the 200-day moving average at 1.2742.

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