Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – April 5, 2018

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Much of the same overnight with the dollar trading within tight ranges for most G7 currencies as markets digest recent China/U.S. tariff exchanges and await headlines/tweets in order to react.  The Dow shrugged off a -500 point open to close the day with a gain prompting positive sessions in Asian & European bourses for the day.  Anticipation for a better than expected U.S. non-farm payroll print tomorrow has been heightened after yesterday’s ADP weekly release came in with a stronger number.

USD/CAD has continued lower on expectations for a provisional NAFTA agreement next week as we await Canadian employment data tomorrow alongside the U.S. release.  Uncertainty surrounding NAFTA has been driving the currency for some time now and we are only a headline away from another 150-200 point move in either direction depending on the content.  Technical indicators are nearing oversold levels but charts will be secondary to fundamentals for the time being.  Support levels remain 1.2727 and 1.2683 and resistance will be near yesterday’s top at 1.2845.

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