Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – March 26, 2018

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The dollar index continues to lose ground on global trade war concerns with the Dow closed near 2018 lows on Friday while Asian & European bourses are in positive territory to start the day.  As we begin a shortened trading week there are several FED members slated to speak throughout today & tomorrow while the main economic release will be Wednesday’s U.S. GDP print expected to come in at 2.7% vs. last month’s 2.5% reading.  Month end flows are anticipated to be USD positive given the S&P’s decline in March which could make for a volatile Thursday in thin trading conditions due to the Easter long weekend.

USD/CAD recovered from its lows seen after Friday’s higher than expected inflation numbers briefly buoyed our currency.  The CAD is losing ground against all G7 counterparts as NAFTA concerns remain to keep us relatively weak against the U.S. dollar and trade war concerns are combining with that to keep the pressure on CAD against the crosses.  Thursday’s Canadian GDP is not expected to impress and, in combination with month-end equity rebalancing flows, could see the CAD suffer greatly.

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