Morning Commentary & Currency Insights – February 5, 2018

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Friday’s strong U.S. employment data has bolstered the fate of the U.S. dollar while slamming North American equities as the market appears to be switching its focus to the possibility of 3 rate hikes from the FED this year.  The DXY appears to have found a base in  the mid 88’s with a break above 90 confirming that we will have put in a medium term bottom as momentum indicators are turning positive (see chart).  While the overall USD long term downtrend is intact, a break above trendline resistance, currently at 92.55 and descending 5 points per day, is required to signal a trend reversal.

USD/CAD has broken above trendline resistance and is now targeting Fibonacci retracement resistance at 1.2507 as momentum indicators her are also turning positive (see chart).  Previous resistance at 1.2400 is now support and with Trudeau coming out this morning saying Canada is willing to walk away from NAFTA we have pushed above USD highs seen on Friday already in European trading.  This week’s Canadian trade & employment data will be key releases to gauge future BoC decisions.

 

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